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(Statistical Information Courtesy of NWPASports.com archives, The Herald and Erie Times-News)

DISTRICT 10 BOYS AND GIRLS BASKETBALL PLAYOFF PROJECTION -- FEBRUARY 12, 2024

With one week remaining in the regular season, the District 10 boys and girls basketball playoff races have some clarity and also some considerable competition for playoff seeds and perhaps even playoff selection.

The postseason begins Thursday, February 22 with Class 3A boys quarterfinals, along with the Class 5A and 6A boys title games. Class 2A and 4A boys quarterfinals will be held on the 23rd, along with any possible Class 1A quarterfinals. Saturday, the girls open postseason play with Class 2A, 3A and 4A quarterfinal games.

Most teams in District 10 have two region games remaining and all contending have at least one league game to play. Teams certainly can move up and down in the standings, and thus, could move up or down (or in or out of) in these rankings.

These are the data points that I take into consideration:

1-Region record/standing
2-Overall record
3-Head-to-head results
4-Record against common opponents when compared with other teams in consideration
5-Region composition (all one class or mixed classifications)
6-Notable wins/losses

I am not a member of the District 10 basketball committee, although I have been on a number of selection committees at the collegiate level. If I had a vote in each tournament, this is what I'd have right now:

CLASS 2A BOYS

1-Mercer, 2-Lakeview, 3-Saegertown, 4-Eisenhower, 5-Cambridge Springs, 6-Iroquois, 7-Sharpsville, 8-Erie First Christian

1-Mercer receives the top seed due to having top overall record and winning a region of only Class 2A teams. Compared to current Region 3 leader Saegertown, Mercer has a win over Rocky Grove while Saegertown lost to the Orioles.

2-Lakeview receives the No. 2 seed based on 6-0 record against common opponents (Cambridge Springs, Conneaut, Jamestown, Reynolds, Rocky Grove) while Saegertown is 3-2 in those games.

3-Saegertown is No. 3 as Region 3 leader.

4/5-Eisenhower and Cambridge Springs are in the fourth and fifth spots. Both teams could get a share of the region title with Saegertown or end up in a three-way tie for first by the end of the upcoming week.

6-Iroquois is 10-10 overall and 6-6 in a league that includes six Class 3A teams. However, Iroquois lost to Eisenhower and Saegertown this season. Cambridge Springs defeated North East, which owns two league wins over Iroquois.

7/8-Sharpsville's overall record is three games better than is Erie First's. Yes, Erie First plays several Class 3A teams in league play but did not defeat any of them, except for 0-20 Northwestern. It would be hard to justify put a four-win team above a seven-win team. Plus, should top seed Mercer have to play a familiar league opponent in the quarterfinals?

CLASS 3A BOYS

1-Franklin, 2-Girard, 3-Oil City, 4-Mercyhurst Prep, 5-North East, 6-Greenville, 7-Fairview, 8-Seneca

1-Girard has the better overall record but Franklin's league, Region 6, consists of both Class 3A and 4A teams. Region 4, of which Girard leads, is Class 2A and 3A. Franklin also has more notable non-conference wins, owning victories over Grove City, Karns City Meadville, and Mohawk. Both Franklin and Girard lost at Hickory.

2-Girard leads Region 4 with an 18-2 overall record, which is the best record in District 10 basketball, boys or girls. Oil City (16-4) is one game behind Franklin in Region 6 and could get a share of the league title. The 3A/4A logic that puts Franklin ahead of Girard could come into play if Oil City defeats Franklin this week. Girard's overall record and being in first place by two games tip the scales for the Yellowjackets, for now.

3-Oil City's overall record and playing in Region 6 give the Oilers the edge over Mercyhurst Prep (13-7). Mercyhurst's recent win over Class 6A Erie (14-6) is notable. Oil City and Mercyhurst have one common opponent: Grove City. Oil City won at Grove City while Mercyhurst Prep lost at home to Grove City three nights later.

4-Mercyhurst Prep is fourth, based upon better overall record than Greenville (9-11) and being ahead of North East (13-7) in Region 4. Mercyhurst plays North East this week, having won the first meeting.

5-North East and Greenville have one common opponent: Cambridge Springs. Both teams lost to Spa. North East is third in Region 4 and has a better overall record. Greenville could move up with win(s) over Class 4A Slippery Rock and/or Sharon this week.

6-Greenville being in a mixed 3A/4A league and having a superior overall record to Fairview and Seneca (7-13) gives Greenville this spot.

7/8-Fairview ranks ahead of Seneca due to head-to-head sweep.

CLASS 4A BOYS

1-Sharon, 2-Grove City, 3-Warren, 4-Slippery Rock, 5-Hickory, 6-Harbor Creek, 7-General McLane, 8-Corry

1-Sharon and Grove City are tied for first in Region 5 with 6-2 records. The teams split their regular season meetings. Sharon has a superior overall record (17-3) than Grove City (11-9). Sharon is 2-1 against non-conference common opponents while Grove City is 1-1. Grove City owns a win over 5A North Hills while Sharon defeated 5A Mars. Mars and North Hills split their two regular season meetings. Sharon also owns a win over Warren (Ohio) Harding. A six-game difference is overall record is the tiebreaker for now; Sharon must still play Hickory and Greenville this week while Grove City closes at home against Slippery Rock after hosting Wilmington.

2-Grove City is currently tied for first in a mixed league while Warren is third in a mixed 3A/4A league. The teams are 1-2 against common opponents. Both have lost to Oil City. Warren won at Fairview but lost at home to DuBois. Grove City won at DuBois but lost at Fairview. Warren plays Oil City this week and could vault past Grove City with a win. For now, Grove City being tied for first place gives the Eagles a slim edge.

3-Warren and Slippery Rock have three common opponents: Union (D-9), Fairview and Oil City. Both are 2-1 with losses to Oil City. Both are currently in third place in mixed 3A/4A regions. Warren's two-game edge in overall record (15-5 vs. 13-7) gives the Dragons the No. 3 spot. Slippery Rock still has a shot at a piece of the region title with two wins this week.

4-Slippery Rock has swept Hickory this season, thus gaining the edge for the fourth spot.

5-Hickory has wins over Sharon and Grove City this year, along with a non-league win over Franklin, which has swept Warren. But Hickory, for now, has to be behind Slippery Rock due to being swept and the teams both having 5-3 league records. A Hickory win Tuesday night at Sharon would further muddy the waters in Class 4A boys. Harbor Creek (9-11) plays in a league with Class 4A, 5A and 6A teams while Hickory (13-6) is part of a Class 3A/4A region. However, Harbor Creek is 3-7 in that region. The teams have one common opponent, Girard. Hickory defeated Girard, 52-33, while Harbor Creek lost at Girard, 70-31. Comparative scores only prove that games were played, but Hickory's overall record, litany of notable wins and the common opponent edge put the Hornets here.

6-Harbor Creek is one game ahead of General McLane (10-10) in the Region 7 standings and owns a 77-74 win this year. The teams meet Friday night in Edinboro. Harbor Creek lost to Corry this year, but McLane owns a win over Corry. Corry is 2-6 in a 3A/4A league. Harbor Creek and General McLane merit the edge due to Region 7 games against Cathedral Prep, Erie, McDowell and Meadville.

7-General McLane (10-10) has a head-to-head win over Corry. Conneaut (10-10) is also in the Class 4A mix. McLane's December win over Slippery Rock looks really good right now. When compared to Conneaut, General McLane is 4-0 against common opponents Corry, Greenville, Jamestown and Titusville. Conneaut is 3-2 in those games, losing to Greenville and splitting with Corry.

8-Corry, for now, has a slim edge on Conneaut. The teams split their regular season games in Region 6. Both teams play Titusville (6-14, 0-8) this week. Corry visits Warren in the Friday finale while Conneaut hosts Franklin in league play Tuesday. An upset in any of the four games would certainly affect the teams' playoff hopes. For now, the edge goes to Corry. The Beavers have a slightly better overall record and an edge in non-conference common opponents. Corry defeated Cambridge Springs while Conneaut lost to Spa.

CLASS 1A BOYS (STARTS IN SEMIFINAL ROUND)

1-Farrell, 2-Rocky Grove, 3-Cochranton, 4-Youngsville

1-Farrell (16-4) has clinched the Region 1 title.

2-Rocky Grove (13-7) will be the Region 1 runner-up. The Orioles own a win over Cochranton (8-12).

3-Cochranton is two games ahead of Youngsville (8-12) in the Region 3 standings.

4-Youngsville hosts Cochranton in the home finale Tuesday night. Youngsville then visits Eisenhower Friday night. Two Youngsville wins could move the Eagles into the third seed, based on a better overall record and the win over Eisenhower.

***

CLASS 2A GIRLS

1-Kennedy Catholic, 2-Maplewood, 3-Lakeview, 4-West Middlesex, 5-Mercer, 6-Cochranton, 7-Eisenhower, 8-Union City

1-Kennedy (16-3) and Maplewood (18-3) are both the undefeated region champions of mixed Class 1A/2A leagues. Maplewood has several notable non-league wins on its ledger, including Grove City. However, Kennedy is undefeated against Pennsylvania schools and has wins over perennial powers Blackhawk, North Catholic, Norwin and Canfield, Ohio. That overall strength of schedule gives Kennedy the nod for the No. 1 seed.

2-Maplewood is a region champion and has a superior overall record than Lakeview and West Middlesex. Maplewood also owns a win over General McLane while Lakeview lost to McLane. Both Maplewood and West Middlesex have wins over Grove City. West Middlesex also has a win over Conneaut whereas Maplewood lost to Conneaut. However, Maplewood's region title, plus the fact that it would be hard to rank Middlesex ahead of Lakeview (more on that shortly), puts the Tigers in the second spot.

3-Lakeview and West Middlesex are both 9-3 in Region 1 play, having split their two regular season games. West Middlesex's Monday night game with Kennedy Catholic has been canceled due to the impending District 10 hearing that resulted from the end of the first WM-KC meeting. West Middlesex can only get to 10-3 in league play while Lakeview can finish 11-3 in the conference. West Middlesex will have a better overall record and an edge in common opponents, owning wins over Conneaut and Neshannock, which both defeated Lakeview. However, the league standing should take precedence.

4-West Middlesex will finish ahead of Mercer in the Region 1 standings. The Big Reds won two of three meetings with Mercer, including a non-conference win at Hickory's Sally Ward Tournament. West Middlesex defeated Cochranton during the regular season, 60-55.

5-Mercer (14-6) currently owns a better overall record than Cochranton (11-9). Mercer is 3-2 against common opponents, having defeated Greenville and Sharpsville, while going 1-2 against West Middlesex. Cochranton lost twice to Greenville and also lost to West Middlesex. Cochranton defeated Sharpsville.

6-Cochranton holds a better overall record than Eisenhower (9-10). Eisenhower does play in a mixed 2A/3A region, but its five league wins are over three teams that opted out of the playoffs: Girard, Titusville and Iroquois. Eisenhower's best win is over Sherman, N.Y., a Class 1A-size school with a 13-5 record. Cochranton's wins over Sharpsville, Union City and Saegertown seem to outweigh that win.

7-Eisenhower (9-10) has a similar overall record to Union City (9-11) and Saegertown (10-11). Playing in a 2A/3A region compared to a 1A/2A league gives Ike the slim edge here.

8-Union City is 6-4 in Region 2 while Saegertown is 6-5. The teams split their regular season meetings. Both teams play Cambridge Springs this week. Union City also plays Rocky Grove in the finale. Union City also has a win over second place Cochranton, which could break a tie between Union City and Saegertown, if both teams end up at 7-5. Spa needs to win both games and have Union City fall to Rocky Grove in order to force a three-way tie at 6-6 in the league.

CLASS 3A GIRLS

PREFACE: This will be a really tough decision, separating the top three teams. There's very little to go on, other than District 10's "power points" and league standings. Mercyhurst and Northwestern are both 11-1 in league play, 17-3 overall and split against each other. Wilmington is 16-4 and has a one-game lead in a mixed Class 3A/4A league. It's likely going to be a six-team field. The District 10 handbook calls for six teams, although seven went to the playoffs in 2023.

1-Mercyhurst Prep, 2-Wilmington, 3-Northwestern, 4-North East, 5-Seneca, 6-Sharpsville

1-Mercyhurst Prep seemingly will have the edge in power points with Northwestern, due to playing 5A Mars, 6A Butler and 5A/6A-sized Seneca Valley (Md.). Mercyhurst Prep defeated Butler (6-15) and Seneca Valley (Md.) (15-4). Subjectively, those wins seem to carry more weight than Northwestern's best non-league wins (Conneaut, Lakeview). Wilmington will likely have more power points than Northwestern, due to playing eight league games against Class 4A teams, plus non-league games with 4A Oil City, 4A Fairview, 4A Conneaut, 5A Lincoln Park Performing Arts Charter School and 6A Erie. Mercyhurst's slightly better overall record gives the Lakers the nod for the top spot over Wilmington, however.

2-Wilmington is in first place of a Class 3A/4A league and will have more power points than Northwestern. Both teams defeated Conneaut and both lost to Fairview. Wilmington's non-league wins over District 7 playoff qualifiers Ellwood City and Mohawk are notable. Being an outright league champion should merit a bye to the semifinal round also. Wilmington would clinch the outright conference title with two wins this week.

3-As written above, Northwestern is very worthy of a top two seed and a quarterfinal round bye. In some ways, the Wildcats are a victim of circumstance. Secondary tiebreakers could put Mercyhurst Prep ahead of Northwestern. Wilmington being a potential outright region champion in a 3A/4A league, coupled with a similar overall record, could also "box out" Northwestern. With Sharpsville penciled in at No. 6 (more below), a Wilmington-Sharpsville quarterfinal would be less than desirable. Should Northwestern have to play a quarterfinal game while the other two top seeds do not? Maybe not, but someone will have to in a six-team draw.

4-North East (14-6) is two games ahead of Seneca (13-7) in league play. North East swept Seneca.

5-Seneca has a superior overall record to Sharpsville (10-10). Seneca also owns the edge against common opponents. Seneca went 2-0 against Cochranton and Union City while Sharpsville lost to those two opponents in December.

6-Sharpsville (10-10) swept Greenville (8-12) and is four games ahead in Region 4. If Greenville wins its last two games against Sharon and Wilmington, a case could be made to expand the tournament to seven teams, as was done last year.

CLASS 4A GIRLS

1-Fairview, 2-Warren, 3-Harbor Creek, 4-Conneaut, 5-Grove City, 6-Franklin, 7-General McLane, 8-Corry

1-Fairview and Warren have very little separation between them. Fairview owns a 16-5 overall record while Warren is 16-4. Warren has wins over 6A McDowell and 6A Erie while Fairview owns two wins over McDowell and one over Erie. Fairview closes the regular season against Erie in Region 6 play. Fairview playing in Region 6 with 5A Cathedral Prep and the two 6A teams certainly carries weight. Warren is in first place in Region 5, an all-Class 4A conference. Region 6's No. 2 4A team, Harbor Creek, just defeated Conneaut, Region 5's No. 2 4A squad. Fairview also owns wins over 3A powers Northwestern and Wilmington. All of that added together gives Fairview the edge for now.

2-Warren has the top overall record among Class 4A teams and is undefeated in Region 5 play. Warren swept Franklin, which defeated Grove City. Warren also has wins over McDowell and Erie, which are a combined 4-0 against Harbor Creek. Additionally, Warren has a 51-43 win over Saint Marys (18-4).

3-Separating the next four teams would appear to be straightforward. Harbor Creek's 12-8 overall record is not as shiny as Grove City (15-6) or Conneaut (14-7). But the Huskies just defeated Conneaut. Harbor Creek playing in Region 6 compared Grove City's 3A/4A region also tilts things towards the Erie Countians. Harbor Creek's 4-0 record against common opponents General McLane, Franklin and Farrell also outweighs Grove City's 2-1 mark against those foes.

4-Conneaut could grab a share of the Region 5 title with two wins this week, which could raise the Eagles' seeding. Grove City is the top 4A team from Region 5 and it would seem logical to have the chance to be a "home" team in the quarterfinals. However, when looking at common opponents, Conneaut is 5-2 against Franklin, Maplewood, Sharon, Slippery Rock, West Middlesex and Wilmington, whereas Grove City has split its eight games with those teams.

5-Yes, Franklin owns an early-season win over Grove City. Head-to-head result is one reason (but not the only reason) why Harbor Creek is ahead of Conneaut for No. 3 and No. 4. Still, Grove City has a superior overall record and is the top 4A team from Region 4. The Eagles are the first of four teams, Franklin is third of six 4A teams in Region 5. Placing Grove City fifth keeps Franklin and Conneaut from meeting in the quarterfinals. Grove City also merited consideration for the third and fourth spots too, whereas Franklin probably did not. Is it fair? Hard to say. Could it change, based upon this week's results? Certainly. 

6-Franklin (12-8) is next in line. Franklin has a win already over Corry (9-10); the teams meet in Thursday's finale.

7-General McLane (8-12) and Corry (9-10) appear to be the next two 4A teams in line. Sharon (11-9) has the best overall record, but sits behind both Hickory (6-15) and Slippery Rock (7-13) in league standings. General McLane plays in the 4A/5A/6A Region 6 and has a win over Class 6A McDowell. McLane also has two wins over Fort LeBoeuf, which defeated Corry. General McLane also defeated Hickory.

8-Corry and Hickory appear to be the last two teams on the board. The only common opponent is Franklin and both teams are 0-1 against the Knights. Corry plays at home Thursday night against Franklin. The Beavers visit Warren Monday. If Corry wins one (or both) of those games, that should sew up a spot. Corry's four wins over 4A teams are over Oil City and Meadville twice. Hickory does have a win over Grove City, along with two wins over Sharon and a win over Slippery Rock. Slippery Rock, with wins at Wilmington and at Grove City to close the season could vault into the eighth spot. For now, Corry being close to .500 and in an all-4A region seems to be enough.

CLASS 1A GIRLS

Jamestown, Rocky Grove and Youngsville are the three contending teams. The District 10 literature notes that only two teams will be selected. Jamestown is 5-12 overall while Youngsville is 6-14 and Rocky Grove is 7-13. Rocky Grove is 0-10 in Region 2 play while Youngsville is 1-9. Jamestown owns a 2-9 league record, but went 1-1 against Youngsville and lost to Rocky Grove.

My prediction: District 10 adds a semifinal game. Jamestown facing the loser of Monday's Youngsville-Rocky Grove game. The winner of that game gets the top seed. Youngsville would have a better league record with a win, Rocky Grove's overall record would be better with a win. Jimtown is in the pigtail game no matter what.

***

The District 10 playoff pairings will be announced next Sunday, February 18. As you can tell, there's very little separation among the teams in several classifications. You may or may not agree with what I have written, and that is OK. Different people will have differing views. I do hope that the rationale that I used is clear.