ProfessorBriggs.com

PROFESSOR'S PROVERBS -- SEPTEMBER 28, 2016

Over the past, when I've made references to music on here, it's usually for some hard rock or classic rock song. For this week, the theme is an Elvis Presley classic, "Return to Sender."

That's in recognition of the seemingly large number of return touchdowns that have been scored by Mercer County high school football teams this season. Unofficially, 27 kickoffs, punts, interceptions and fumbles have been taken to the end zone by defenses or return units. Last week, our area teams rang up eight return touchdowns. That matches the Week 3 total of eight.

This season, in the six games I have called for Sports Radio 96.7 and 790 WPIC, there have been six total return touchdowns. In 12 called games last year, there were four total. Every week, it seems like the scoring updates that we get are "Smith 70 interception return" or "Jones 82-yard kickoff return." 

What is the reason for this surge? Here are a few possible explanations:

1. More Scoring Overall -- There have been 37 games played this season involving Mercer County teams. Only one time did the teams not combine for 30 total points (Week One, Reynolds over Slippery Rock, 13-7). In Week Six 15 years ago, these were the final scores:
Reynolds 13, Sharon 12
Sharpsville 19, Hickory 7
Slippery Rock 33, Mercer 6
Greenville 14, Titusville 13
Wilmington 40, Mount Pleasant 3
Linesville 40, Lakeview 0
Farrell 37, Sto-Rox 0
Punxsutawney 28, Grove City 20
West Middlesex 40, Saegertown 6

You can go back and look at a particular week from 1996 and see the same thing: Scores now are higher, which means that there are more Scoring Plays. More Scoring Plays means that there will be more returns for touchdowns, in theory. If x percent of touchdowns overall are returns and there are more overall touchdowns, basic algebra tells us that there will be more return touchdowns. More scores=more kickoffs=more kickoff returns as well.

I can remember calling/working many games with scores like 7-6, 6-0, 3-0, 7-0 and 12-7. If both teams got over 20, look out! 28-27 was a barnburner.

The bigger but underlying question is: Why is scoring up?

On the whole, teams are passing more than ever at all levels of football, but especially in Mercer County. The growth of 7-on-7 passing scrimmages and camps in the summer has helped teams implement more advanced passing offenses. More teams are using one-back spread offenses. The majority of quarterback snaps are now fielded out of the shotgun or pistol instead of under center.

Fewer teams are actually huddling between plays. You rarely see the back judge putting up his hand to indicate five seconds remaining on the play clock. With less time used between plays, there is more time for plays to be executed. More passing means more incomplete passes. An incomplete pass uses probably six to seven seconds of clock. A run for no gain uses those same 6-7 seconds, but then another 24-30 seconds of clock will burn off before the next snap. That also leads to more offensive plays and greater opportunity to score.

For generations, the prevailing thought was that when you passed, three things happened and two of them were bad (incompletion, interception). While that is still the case, passing games have been refined to where the probability of the good thing (completion) outweighs the probability of the bad results. Completion percentages are up significantly and it's not because everyone is using "dink and dunk" plays.

The proliferation of artificial turf also helps. Five local schools (Greenville, Grove City, Hickory, Slippery Rock and Wilmington) have artificial playing surfaces. Those fields remain "fast" in poor weather, unlike a grass field. Those programs also have the advantage of being able to practice many nights on that turf to further hone their offensive schemes.

Seventeen of the 37 games involving local teams this year have been played on turf.

Getting back to the topic at hand ...

2. There Are a Lot of Great Players In the Area -- Several local players have multiple return touchdown this season in our area. A number of players have accomplished that feat in the same game this year, returning an interception and a fumble for a touchdown in the same game. Or a kickoff and an interception.

I dismiss that as a reason for an increase in returns, however. There are a lot of outstanding players in the area this season. But Mercer County has had great football players going back to the days of antiquity. Future NFL players Mike Archie, Andre Coleman, Marlin Jackson and Lorenzo Styles all had the ball in their hands a lot during their respective careers but the number of overall touchdown returns was much lower than our current number. There simply were not as many touchdowns scored. A 34-7 game then is probably equitable to a 55-14 game in 2016.

3. There Is A Large Disparity Among Teams -- It is pretty clear that the regions in District 10 tend to feature "haves" and "have nots" for the most part. It is logical to think that a vastly superior team is more likely to return a kick or turnover for a touchdown against an outclassed opponent. After all, an inferior opponent is more likely to punt or turn over the football and the better team is more likely to have players capable of scoring in such situations.

Yet, the Sharon-Greenville game featured three total touchdown returns. Most would agree that if there are two teams in our area who are fairly comparable, it would be Sharon and Greenville.

Plus, there always has been and always will be a gap between good teams and teams that are struggling. Some years, the gap is wider than in other years. But there will never be a year in which every team goes 8-2.

4. It's Chance and It's Cyclical -- That argument is pretty much a coverall to explain why things happen when you don't have any empirical data to support something. Now, I am a big believer that things even out over the course of time in sports. Over the next four weeks of the regular season, we could see the return touchdowns dry up rather quickly. I also think that you are more likely to have things "even out" in sports like baseball and softball, where you can line a rocket and end up in a double play, then hit a jam-job over the infield and score two runs.

> For anyone simple-minded enough to question why most of the Class 4A football teams in District 10 voluntary moved up to Class 5A: Cathedral Prep 62, General McLane 0.

General McLane is a good team and a perennially-strong program. The Lancers are one of the favorites to win the Class 5A District 10 title and yet, they trailed Prep 34-0 after one quarter. Cathedral Prep is an awesome football machine that is overflowing with big-time talent. Prep players have scholarship offers from Notre Dame, Ohio State, U.C.L.A. and many other top collegiate programs. It would be very surprising if the Ramblers don't advance to the state title game in Class 4A this season.

> One of the great debates in our area is regarding the strength of Pennsylvania football compared to Ohio football. Buckeye State supporters will note that Conneaut (Ohio) is now 3-0 against Pennsylvania foes after knocking off Titusville last week, 28-27. The Spartans have moved up to 10th place in their region and would really make some more headway in upcoming weeks against Corry and Harbor Creek, who are Division III size by Ohio nomenclature. Conneaut will be rooting for Mercyhurst Prep this Friday at West Middlesex as any wins that Mercyhurst gets will be of secondary benefit (the Second Level Points) to Conneaut.

Regarding Pennsylvania vs. Ohio, I lean toward Ohio being better on the whole. To explain my statement, let's create a five-tier system of ranking teams: Excellent, Good, Average, Fair and Poor. The same percentage of teams in both states would be classified as "Excellent." However, I think Ohio has a greater percentage of teams who would grade out as "Good" and "Average," while Pennsylvania has more teams that would be in the "Average" and "Fair" categories. Pennsylvania probably also has a few more "Poor" teams.

Locally, I think that Mercer County teams would be very competitive with Trumbull and Mahoning County teams. If there were 10 games played between similarly-sized schools, I'd guess it would be a 5-5 or 6-4 split in most years. We saw last year that Sharon and Struthers put on a great show in the season opener.

> Monday night, Sports Radio 96.7 and 790 WPIC unveiled this week's Power Rankings. Click on "Power Rankings" to see where the teams rank, according to our informed and varied panel. 

Here is how I voted. The number in parentheses is where the team was ranked in my previous Power Rankings:

1. Hickory (last week: 1) -- Win over Westinghouse more impressive than final score might indicate
2. Wilmington (2) -- Greyhounds' play this season makes one pause before putting a "1" next to Hickory
3. Grove City (3) -- Undefeated ... and still unchallenged so far in conference play.
4. Sharon (4) -- Tigers may have played their best 48 minutes of the season against Slippery Rock.
5. Sharpsville (NR) -- Narrow win over Reynolds lifts Devils back onto ballot.

> Numerous reports have indicated that Youngsville may not be able to finish the 2016 football season, which could cause plenty of issues for Farrell and West Middlesex. Farrell has rescheduled its Homecoming game from October 7 to this coming Saturday, against Meadville (a game that Mike Piddington and I will have on 790 WPIC). Reportedly, Farrell is looking for an opponent for the weekend of October 7-8. I would have to think that is a very difficult task at such a late hour. It's not easy to fill open dates in March, let alone now.

West Middlesex is scheduled to visit Youngsville the following week. West Middlesex could face the same situation as Farrell in trying to fill an open date. Cambridge Springs (October 21) could be in a similar quandary. Hopefully Youngsville will be able to conclude its season. The Eagles play Erie East Saturday and that game is still on.

> As I said previously, Professor Briggs is very excited to have been able to record a new commercial for Westside Beverage in downtown Sharon. Make sure to tune into Sports Radio 96.7 to listen for the spot. If you or your business/organization are looking for someone to handle voice work for you, do not hesitate to contact me.

> Keep the cards and letters coming to ryanbriggs@zoominternet.net. Follow me on Twitter @professorbriggs